Gypsies and devastation: why do Bulgarians flee the country
Why Russians stopped actively buying property in Bulgaria
Although Bulgaria has been a member of the EU for more than 10 years, this cannot be said for the country. Small trade, gouged asphalt and gypsy quarters - that's what tourists see. Due to high corruption, EU subsidies do not help the economy, and chilled relations with Russia do not allow the active development of exports. After 2014, many Russian fellow citizens are no longer interested in buying inexpensive apartments near the Black Sea.
More than 10 years ago, Bulgaria joined the European Union. However, getting into this country, you feel as if in some CIS country, and not in Europe. Typical picture: a large number of unfinished buildings and “For Sale” signs, broken-up asphalt in patches, even in the area of the elite resort “Sunny Beach”, small unofficial trade that occupied the central streets of the UNESCO- included Nessebar city so hard that it’s difficult to make out historical monuments.
In addition, the specific southern flavor of the country adds an abundance of gypsies. In some areas of the "cultural" capital of the country - Plovdiv - there are indeed gypsy quarters, next to which ordinary Bulgarians try not to settle and generally do not go there.
According to experts, the country's economy is in a very controversial situation. On the one hand, since 2016 an increase in the volume of nominal GDP has been recorded.
Economic growth is negligible, but stable.
As the chief strategist of Univer Capital Dmitry Alexandrov notes, in the second quarter of 2019, the economy added 3.5%.
Bulgaria’s macroeconomic indicators are generally good as well - inflation does not exceed 3%, the private sector dominates the public sector, debt is also relatively low, says Narek Avakyan , head of investment management at BCS Broker .
So, Bulgaria, whose debt to GDP is only 20.1%, looks very good and is even put in the EU as an example to other countries.The euro zone itself has a similar indicator at the level of 85.1% and does not even think to reduce it,
Finam analyst Alexei Korenev notes.
However, for the population this does not mean anything. In contrast to macroeconomic indicators, the naked eye shows that the socio-economic situation in the country is extremely difficult. The poverty level in the country exceeds 22%.
“The average annual salary in Bulgaria is 7,400 euros, which is more than twice as low as in the EU, where it is at the level of € 15 thousand. The country's population is rapidly aging - young people are actively leaving the country, and mainly pensioners remain“ living out ” and pre-retirement age, ”says Korenev.
Thus, the country's population over the past 30 years has decreased from 9 million to 7 million people.
The open border with the EU attracts promising young workers and entrepreneurs like a magnet.They do not see any reason to stay in Bulgaria.
In order to somehow survive, those who remain to live in the country are forced to actively earn extra money - mainly seasonal earnings. For the most part, this is work related to servicing tourists. In general, the share of the gray economy in GDP, according to various estimates, is almost 50%, saidAlexei Antonov , an analyst with BC Alor.
Previously, one of the most profitable articles for the Bulgarian economy was the construction and sale of real estate. And here most of the demand fell on the Russians, who bought apartments by the sea for 20-50 thousand euros. However, only until 2014, then after the sanctions and the fall of the Russian currency, such purchases ceased to be affordable for our fellow citizens.
“Until 2014, Russians were the most active foreign buyers of Bulgarian real estate.In 2014-15, there was a sharp decline, when the Russians, by contrast, became the most active sellers.
And from the second half of 2016, Bulgaria ceased to be the No. 1 foreign market for Russian citizens, losing to Spain, ”comments Philippe Berezin, editor-in-chief of the Prian.ru website.
The company received the main stream of applications from Russians for the purchase of real estate in Bulgaria until 2014, Ruslan Galimov, ananalyst with Tranio.ru, also confirms.
So, in 2013 there were almost 30 times more than in 2018. A sharp reduction occurred just at the turn of 2014-2015, when the ruble fell in Russia, the expert notes.
“The decline in interest can be attributed to rising real estate prices in Bulgaria itself. According to the National Statistical Institute of Bulgaria, from the first quarter of 2014 to the end of the first quarter of 2019, property prices rose on average by 1.5% from quarter to quarter. The total growth was 34%. This influenced the interest of Russians, including many investors with a small budget, ”commented Ruslan Galimov.
The low level of service, the low quality of service at all levels, the standard of living, which is clearly inappropriate for the EU country and many associated factors, also significantly affected the desire to buy a house here, Korenev said.
“Even despite the good climate and low prices, the Russians began to lose interest in Bulgaria. Those who wanted to buy real estate there have already done this. The rest either cannot or choose other states, ”he adds.
Moreover, the conditions for granting a residence permit (residence permit) in Bulgaria are not very interesting for Russians. The reason for this: a high entry threshold, you must buy an object for more than 300 thousand euros - for Bulgaria the amount is sky-high. Since 2012, only two dozen Russians have received a residence permit under this program, says Galimov.
In general, according to experts, bad relations with Russia have a very negative effect on the country's economy. Thus, Bulgarian exports exceed imports by only $ 2 billion per year. Previously, the Russian market was one of the key for the export of Bulgarian goods, Avakyan says. Europe does not need them.
“Russia and Bulgaria had long-term stable economic, humanitarian and educational ties, tourism was developed, which made a significant contribution to the Bulgarian economy, but relations were cooled against the background of Bulgarian attacks on activists and human rights activists,” Dmitry Alexandrov explains.
According to Antonov,
Bulgaria should use its geographical location for the transit of resources, for example, gas, and try to build around this both foreign policy and the economy.
Thus, the unrealized South Stream project, which was planned to be laid along the bottom of the Black Sea from the Anapa region to the Bulgarian port of Varna, was a good chance for the country, but Bulgaria successfully missed it.
Recall that Russia abandoned the project due to active criticism of it in the EU. So, the European Parliament adopted a resolution in which it recommended abandoning the construction of a gas pipeline.
Moreover, the support of Bulgaria from Europe does not help the country.
The EU previously allocated funds, but subsequently the programs were repeatedly suspended due to too high corruption and inefficiency in spending them in Bulgaria. For example, the international organization Transparency International previously called this country the most corrupt in the European Union. The judicial system and the legislative branch are most involved in this, and the agricultural sector is not far behind.
At the same time, due to the fact that Great Britain will withdraw from the European Union , funding for other countries from Brussels will be further reduced.
“Bulgaria needs a change of elites and policies, reforms, but the elites are unlikely to agree with this, rather, they will continue to pursue a populist policy,” Antonov summarizes.
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